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[#] Mon Nov 09 2020 23:57:15 EST from ParanoidDelusions

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That is, there is no one to be turned off on my BBS at the present moment... so having a bunch of users to drive away would be a change for the better. ;) 

 



[#] Tue Nov 10 2020 09:16:43 EST from LoanShark

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Unless the science very much takes an 11th-hour turn in an unexpected direction, concerns about the long-term effects of a vaccine are almost certainly misplaced. Yes, it could probably trigger a dangerous autoimmune reaction in a small number of people that is not of epidemiological significance. The live virus does that, too, and it's far riskier given the risk of death or long-term sequelae ("long-haulers")

I feel fully recovered now, but it took me a surprisingly long time to get there, the acute phase was brutal and dangerous. I believe the long-haulers are not just full of shit.

Concerns about ADE (Antibody-Dependent Enhancement) would see to be resolved (to the extent that it's possible to know) by data showing 90% efficacy. And the live virus could also cause ADE.

I personally will wait a little, but I have the luxury of (a) probable partial immunity, (b) young age and only one underlying condition, and (c) the ability to work from home as long as necessary. Many people do not have that luxury.

Much of this discussion is moot, in any case: by the time enough doses have been manufactured that the thing is broadly available to the people reading this room, the will be far more data. We have to wait, whether or not we choose to.

[#] Tue Nov 10 2020 09:54:06 EST from ParanoidDelusions

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Tue Nov 10 2020 09:16:43 EST from LoanShark

Unless the science very much takes an 11th-hour turn in an unexpected direction, concerns about the long-term effects of a vaccine are almost certainly misplaced. Yes, it could probably trigger a dangerous autoimmune reaction in a small number of people that is not of epidemiological significance. The live virus does that, too, and it's far riskier given the risk of death or long-term sequelae ("long-haulers")

I feel fully recovered now, but it took me a surprisingly long time to get there, the acute phase was brutal and dangerous. I believe the long-haulers are not just full of shit.

Concerns about ADE (Antibody-Dependent Enhancement) would see to be resolved (to the extent that it's possible to know) by data showing 90% efficacy. And the live virus could also cause ADE.

I personally will wait a little, but I have the luxury of (a) probable partial immunity, (b) young age and only one underlying condition, and (c) the ability to work from home as long as necessary. Many people do not have that luxury.

Much of this discussion is moot, in any case: by the time enough doses have been manufactured that the thing is broadly available to the people reading this room, the will be far more data. We have to wait, whether or not we choose to.

Here is the thing... 

Since 2016, *everything* that can take an 11th-hour turn in an unexpected direction... 

Has. 

I understand the law of averages - that if you flip a quarter 100 times and 99 times it comes up heads, the 100th flip, the chance of tails is still roughly 50%. 

But I always understand that Murphy *was* an IT Engineer. 

I'd like other people to go first, in sufficient numbers, with the Great Vaccine of 2020 before I join them in being a test case. 



[#] Tue Nov 10 2020 11:23:20 EST from LoanShark

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This is the part of the discussion where Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows up uninvited and insults everybody here for not understanding probability theory, fails to explain what he means, and then leaves in a huff.

[#] Tue Nov 10 2020 11:24:09 EST from LoanShark

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(and if you think I'm joking, that's what he does on twitter. He's truely insufferable and adds nothing to any conversation)

[#] Tue Nov 10 2020 12:56:45 EST from ParanoidDelusions

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Tue Nov 10 2020 11:24:09 EST from LoanShark

(and if you think I'm joking, that's what he does on twitter. He's truely insufferable and adds nothing to any conversation)

So, a typical Twitter user, then? ;) 

 



[#] Tue Nov 10 2020 13:24:58 EST from LoanShark

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So, a typical Twitter user, then? ;) 

Twitter is a living nightmare. You can find any viewpoint represented on there, no matter how deeply in the minority or from what part of the political spectrum/grid/hypercube. The most idiotic viewpoints are always the ones most loudly defended by arrogant loudmouths calling everyone else a horrible person, and/or outright targetted harassment.

It's an absolute hellsite, but it does have its uses.

I'm on there mainly to keep in touch with personal friends, follow certain public figures, and other unspecified nefarious purposes.

[#] Tue Nov 10 2020 13:49:11 EST from ParanoidDelusions

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Tue Nov 10 2020 13:24:58 EST from LoanShark
It's an absolute hellsite, but it does have its uses. 

I'm on there mainly to keep in touch with personal friends, follow certain public figures, and other unspecified nefarious purposes.

Me too, but I just can't handle it anymore. I mean, I know my messages are being suppressed, (Not all messages are displayed, click here to see messages that might be offensive)... purely because I speak truth to power against the ideologies of Jack and Twitter and the Millennial generation. The celebrities make me want to gag. 

I'm really sick of the rhetoric of the right wing there too. They spend all their time bitching, but they never get anywhere. 

 



[#] Tue Nov 10 2020 13:51:25 EST from LoanShark

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If anybody doesn't like your reply to their original tweet, they can now choose to hide it in the subsection that has to be explicitly opened up.

[#] Tue Nov 10 2020 14:51:32 EST from ParanoidDelusions

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They can also post to public, and Twitter will gladly push it into your stream, but they can limit you from responding. 

Which is EXACTLY their world view. "You need to hear US talk, but we have no need to hear your response." 



[#] Wed Nov 11 2020 10:38:15 EST from Ragnar Danneskjold

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I've got a few close friends who are physicians, and I always bounce things off of them.... Of course, I asked about the Pfizer announcement. One, who lives in California, said that he's worred that the State won't allow it to be distributed, and he will travel anywhere to get it for himself and his family as soon as it's available. Another said that he won't go anywhere near it because mRNA vaccines are unproven and he'd like to see more tests....
Still another he'll take it, but won't be first in line.

Interestingly, their positions DIDN'T align with their poltiical beliefs, like we've seen for many people throughout the pandemic.

[#] Wed Nov 11 2020 13:14:01 EST from ParanoidDelusions

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Wed Nov 11 2020 10:38:15 EST from Ragnar Danneskjold
I've got a few close friends who are physicians, and I always bounce things off of them.... Of course, I asked about the Pfizer announcement. One, who lives in California, said that he's worred that the State won't allow it to be distributed, and he will travel anywhere to get it for himself and his family as soon as it's available. Another said that he won't go anywhere near it because mRNA vaccines are unproven and he'd like to see more tests....
Still another he'll take it, but won't be first in line.

Interestingly, their positions DIDN'T align with their poltiical beliefs, like we've seen for many people throughout the pandemic.

A lot of my Far Right friends jumped on the "its a hoax, I'm not wearing a mask in CostCo, and I'm still going out to bars and other crowded places all I want," bandwagon. 

My neighbor, far more Left than I, has isolated in his house completely, quit his job as a waiter, and has taken to drinking heavily and smoking lots of weed. Every time I see him he looks haunted, dark circles under his eyes. He skipped Halloween completely, which is his favorite holiday. Has two sons... you can see his fear consuming him completely. 

I know a physician in Texas who thinks the whole thing is a fraud and shames any mask wearers and insists that his professional background assures him that being a "maskhole" increases your odds of infection and complications. 

I think the most reasonable people on both sides saw the political agenda behind it and said, "I'm going to live my life based on my analysis of all of the information available to me." Their conclusions might not all be the same - but they also accept that it is an individual analysis for each person, for each family, that balances their comfort with the impact their decisions makes on that. 

It is amazing how many smart people are unreasonable. 



[#] Wed Nov 11 2020 15:45:13 EST from Ragnar Danneskjold

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I don't think anyone on the right thought the virus is a hoax, but the reaction to it is pushing an agenda.

[#] Wed Nov 11 2020 19:13:15 EST from ParanoidDelusions

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Wed Nov 11 2020 15:45:13 EST from Ragnar Danneskjold
I don't think anyone on the right thought the virus is a hoax, but the reaction to it is pushing an agenda.

I unfortunately know a handful of people who honestly thought it was a hoax at one point or another. All but the most unreasonable of those have changed their mind. 



[#] Mon Nov 16 2020 09:46:09 EST from LoanShark

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Even better news from Moderna. Equally preliminary as Pfizer of course, but 94.5% effective against Covid, 100% effective against severe Covid (so far), and fewer requirements around refrigeration.

Of course things can change, but that's really highly unlikely, this is encouraging news and you know what, you're allowed to get your hopes up a little.

[#] Mon Nov 16 2020 15:31:07 EST from IGnatius T Foobar

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I don't think anyone on the right thought the virus is a hoax, but the

reaction to it is pushing an agenda.

That's it. The virus is real. It's difficult to argue that the virus does not exist when people everywhere are contracting it. Our objection is not to the assertion that the virus exists, but that it has been used as an excuse for some pretty tyrannical behavior. That much is not up for debate either; the place where we can start to differ is on whether it was deliberate or opportunistic. And that's a discussion for another day (or at least another room).

[#] Mon Nov 16 2020 15:31:50 EST from IGnatius T Foobar

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Even better news from Moderna. Equally preliminary as Pfizer of
course, but 94.5% effective against Covid, 100% effective against
severe Covid (so far), and fewer requirements around refrigeration.

Is that news for vaccines or therapeutics?

[#] Tue Nov 17 2020 10:27:12 EST from LoanShark

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Is that news for vaccines or therapeutics?

What do you mean? A vaccine is more of a preventive measure than a therapy, you have to take it first. It will either prevent infection entirely *or* just reduce symptoms when you do catch it--that's where the line starts to get fuzzy.

This is the best technique in our arsenal by orders of magnitude. No after-the-fact treatment comes close.

[#] Tue Nov 17 2020 12:06:57 EST from IGnatius T Foobar

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Right ... by "therapeutics" I was referring to something taken after infection is confirmed. (Hopefully immediately after.)

[#] Tue Nov 17 2020 14:10:31 EST from LoanShark

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In that category, the Regeneron cocktail looks promising, so does remdesivir but I was reading an article today about how there's no data linking it to actual improvements in mortality -- it just shortens your time to recovery. That might be true of the Regenero cocktail as well.

Dexamethasone(?) might be the best of the bunch. I saw another study recently about a similar treatment that suppresses the damaging inflammation, unfortunately I'm having trouble finding the link. The claim that I'm hearing, which seems to make sense, is that the more specifically we can suppress *only* the problematic parts of the immune system that result in all that runaway inflammation, the better off we'll be.


I'd rather be vaccinated than be in a position where I have to gamble on the best after-the-fact treatment; I don't think we've gotten *that* much better at treating this.

Interestingly, the breakneck pace at which this virus is now spreading has also had the effect of speeding the pace at which vaccine trials can gather their effectiveness data...

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