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[#] Thu Apr 29 2021 20:38:52 UTC from ParanoidDelusions

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"Another freight container full of Wine Coolers and Cotton Candy flavored Body lotion going to Epstein's island...." 

:) 

 

Thu Apr 29 2021 16:28:28 EDT from Nurb432

Its not? 

( just kidding )

Thu Apr 29 2021 04:27:20 PM EDT from ParanoidDelusions



Saying that Bubblegum flavored vape is a gateway designed to lure children into smoking is like saying that flavored lube is a gateway designed to lure children into performing oral sex. 

 



 



[#] Sun May 02 2021 18:55:23 UTC from IGnatius T Foobar

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Let's go straight to the wild conjecture:

Menthol cigarettes are being banned because legalized marijuana will bring in a higher gross tax revenue. They don't want anyone to stop smoking; they want menthol users to switch to pot.

[#] Sun May 02 2021 21:35:56 UTC from Nurb432

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Pot is easier to grow and process at  home.  Tobacco  ( even with out menthol ) isn't..  i bet the net revenue would be less.

Id more lean to them just taxing both.   

 

Of course legalization of pot nation wide, woudl see a portion of our economy collapse, due to the high profits on the black market. That would have tax implications as well, mostly sales tax as the profits filter down to traditional markets, like cars or the local grocery store..  I did a final report in high school about that, in econ.   While it was somewhat unconventional ( not for me tho :) ), i did back everything up with numbers and facts.

Sun May 02 2021 02:55:23 PM EDT from IGnatius T Foobar

Let's go straight to the wild conjecture:

Menthol cigarettes are being banned because legalized marijuana will bring in a higher gross tax revenue. They don't want anyone to stop smoking; they want menthol users to switch to pot.

 



[#] Sun May 02 2021 23:39:37 UTC from ParanoidDelusions

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So, your thesis here is that the sudden and catastrophic collapse of a black market, because the market is legalized, has a significant impact on the legitimate market economy, as high profits are erased? 

Seems reasonable. I'm sure the cartels in South America are a vibrant part of the world economy, and without their purchasing power, many industries would feel a pinch. 

Also - yeah - as a smoker, I can tell you that if you take away *tobacco*, I'm not going to seek out marijuana as an alternative. More likely cocaine or heroin. Weed has a pretty weak punch compared to Coke, Smack and Coffin Nails - which are the big 3 of addiction. 

Let me put it this way - if you go into 12 Steps - the people there have given up *everything* addictive in their lives, because they can't just substitute - their addictive personalities will make them junkies for whatever they can get their hands on. They'll be happy to give you a testimonial on this, while drinking coffee and smoking a cigarette. 

 

Sun May 02 2021 17:35:56 EDT from Nurb432

Pot is easier to grow and process at  home.  Tobacco  ( even with out menthol ) isn't..  i bet the net revenue would be less.

Id more lean to them just taxing both.   

 

Of course legalization of pot nation wide, woudl see a portion of our economy collapse, due to the high profits on the black market. That would have tax implications as well, mostly sales tax as the profits filter down to traditional markets, like cars or the local grocery store..  I did a final report in high school about that, in econ.   While it was somewhat unconventional ( not for me tho :) ), i did back everything up with numbers and facts.

Sun May 02 2021 02:55:23 PM EDT from IGnatius T Foobar

Let's go straight to the wild conjecture:

Menthol cigarettes are being banned because legalized marijuana will bring in a higher gross tax revenue. They don't want anyone to stop smoking; they want menthol users to switch to pot.

 



 



[#] Mon May 03 2021 00:04:49 UTC from Nurb432

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Basically ya.

My report was based on 'watching a single dollar move among the black market and its impact on society'.  I traced it from coming in the country and followed it around, with all its 'collateral effects' until it ended up being absorbed by the government as taxes.  The proposal was that if it was now illegal, the price would drop as well as who had that dollar to spend, creating a dramatic hit on the local economy due to the reduced or eliminated 'flow' of that money.  

The other part was that local economics does not really rely on the total dollars in circulation, but its movement.   So once i showed the amount of flow reduction, i tossed the effects in on last part of the paper.

I'm sure i could do a better job now, that i am not 18 and i understand the world more and its a lot more complex, but i do think the basic premise i had was sound.

Sun May 02 2021 07:39:37 PM EDT from ParanoidDelusions

So, your thesis here is that the sudden and catastrophic collapse of a black market, because the market is legalized, has a significant impact on the legitimate market economy, as high profits are erased? 


 



[#] Mon May 03 2021 01:42:06 UTC from ParanoidDelusions

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Seems sound. The only thing I think might offset that is that there is less overhead in *cleaning* the money in a legitimate economy, less loss there - because, loss is always involved in cleansing money - and that the economies of scale mean it is easier to reach far larger markets in a legitimate market than an illegal one - creating at least some offset to the lost high profit and a better, more equitable distribution profile. The pyramid of production becomes taller, far more levels, and much broader in a legal economy. 

 

Sun May 02 2021 20:04:49 EDT from Nurb432

Basically ya.

My report was based on 'watching a single dollar move among the black market and its impact on society'.  I traced it from coming in the country and followed it around, with all its 'collateral effects' until it ended up being absorbed by the government as taxes.  The proposal was that if it was now illegal, the price would drop as well as who had that dollar to spend, creating a dramatic hit on the local economy due to the reduced or eliminated 'flow' of that money.  

The other part was that local economics does not really rely on the total dollars in circulation, but its movement.   So once i showed the amount of flow reduction, i tossed the effects in on last part of the paper.

I'm sure i could do a better job now, that i am not 18 and i understand the world more and its a lot more complex, but i do think the basic premise i had was sound.

Sun May 02 2021 07:39:37 PM EDT from ParanoidDelusions

So, your thesis here is that the sudden and catastrophic collapse of a black market, because the market is legalized, has a significant impact on the legitimate market economy, as high profits are erased? 


 



 



[#] Mon May 03 2021 10:33:12 UTC from zooer

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I was at a home poker game years ago.  I never hung out with this group and wouldn't go back.  From what I picked up on the host's dealer buddy lived across the street. He said that they can legalize pot, the black market will still exist because people don't want to pay taxes.

I agree with him that people wouldn't want taxes, but they might want a quality controlled, safely produced product.

I wouldn't put too much faith in this guy, he was bragging to strangers that he was dealing. One of the other newly invited players asked him, "How do you know I am not a cop?" 

 

The black market would still exist, not as large as it was.  The charges and punishment for distributing without a license and tax evasion would be more severe.  The government might not care if you are dealing, but the government does care about taxable revenue.  



[#] Mon May 03 2021 12:10:38 UTC from Nurb432

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I think that would be true at first.

But taking alcohol as the example of what happens. At one point it was illegal and everyone made their own or used black market.  But in 2021, how many people do you know now that still make their own ( be it distilled or just brew ). Hardly anyone.   And you can do it in the comfort of your own house and not get caught ( distillation, is still technically illegal for individuals, or making too much beer/wine ). And along the same lines as above, would you even want to buy some bathtub gin and risk getting sick when you can drive down to the corner market and get exactly what you want, with zero concerns from a *regulated* manufacturer?   

And sure, not that it does not exist at all, but about the only black market left for it is stolen goods.  And sure tax avoidance is there for a few hard-core, but is soooo low on the priority list as to be such a small % that its just a rounding error of the bigger picture.

 

So, just going off that history, I suspect that in a few short years the black market for pot would be pretty much gone.  Sure, other drugs, and a few  hold outs growing their own, but not weed as there would be no 'reason' to do it anymore.



[#] Mon May 03 2021 15:01:37 UTC from ParanoidDelusions

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💯

Mon May 03 2021 08:10:38 EDT from Nurb432

I think that would be true at first.

 



[#] Mon May 03 2021 15:57:14 UTC from darknetuser

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2021-05-03 08:10 from Nurb432
I think that would be true at first.

But taking alcohol as the example of what happens. At one point it
was illegal and everyone made their own or used black market.  But
in 2021, how many people do you know now that still make their own (

be it distilled or just brew ). Hardly anyone.   And you can do it

in the comfort of your own house and not get caught ( distillation,
is still technically illegal for individuals, or making too much
beer/wine ). And along the same lines as above, would you even want
to buy some bathtub gin and risk getting sick when you can drive down

to the corner market and get exactly what you want, with zero
concerns from a *regulated* manufacturer?   

And sure, not that it does not exist at all, but about the only black

market left for
it is stolen goods.  And sure tax avoidance is there
for a few hard-core, but is soooo low on the priority list as to be
such a small % that its just a rounding error of the bigger picture.


 

So, just going off that history, I suspect that in a few short years

the black market for pot would be pretty much gone.  Sure, other
drugs, and a few  hold outs growing their own, but not weed as there

would be no 'reason' to do it anymore.


There is a lot of black market for things that are actually legal. Specially under oppressive regimes.

The question is wether the tax&bourocrazy overcost offsets the risk of getting scammed by bad produc in a dark alley and having no legal recourse. If the tax overcost is low enough then the dark alley is finished. If the overcost from law compliance is mad you will have what my country has and more than 50% of your economy will be underground because nobody can afford legal activities.

[#] Mon May 03 2021 15:59:40 UTC from Nurb432

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Oh, of course, but we are not to that stage yet in society where we are buying beef in back alleys since you cant get it anywhere else, even tho its legal.

Mon May 03 2021 11:57:14 AM EDT from darknetuser
There is a lot of black market for things that are actually legal. Specially under oppressive regimes.



[#] Mon May 03 2021 19:09:35 UTC from ParanoidDelusions

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When I was a young guy, the least of the black market items my associates dealt in were "illegal fireworks" that could be bought legally just across state lines, but have always been prohibited in my lifetime in California without a "religious permit".  

There was certainly a lucrative economy around the resale of these items - and it *absolutely* was linked to organized (Asian) crime in Northern California/The Bay Area. It is kind of the recruitment gateway into all the other things Chinese organized crime is involved in in Northern California, including hard drugs and drug trafficking. A $4 brick of firecrackers cost $11-15 in Sacramento in 1981 and it was an 11 year old Chinese boy on a BMX bicycle you bought it from. You would be buying your 8 Ball of coke from the same guy by the time he was finishing High school (with honors). 

There are levels of black-market economies too... from the sketchy dude selling microwaves out of a beat up white panel van and rushing you through the deal compared to established neighborhood crime organizations that throw Chinese New Year Parties every year for the local community and hand out little red packets with money in them to the neighbors. I'm sure on the East Coast your variation of this eats a different kind of noodle - but the techniques remain the same. 

They depend to a certain degree not just on the intimidation of the local community, but the good will of it, too - in order to thrive. The people actually involved in underground economies, both the purveyors and the consumers - generally learn who are trusted and reliable merchants and everyone who isn't in that group is suspect. But if California made illegal fireworks legal - it would disrupt that trade instantly, overnight. We wouldn't have been able to compete with the same thing for 20% of the price. 

What *might* happen would be something like what happens with cigarettes. DEALERS will buy black-market without tax stamps then sell at or near regular retail - but the consumer very rarely benefits, or even realizes that this is what is happening. It becomes a relatively trivial part of the overall economy for the product - as most dealers don't want to risk the fines, imprisonment, or loss of license associated with getting caught cheating the state, for the small benefit in profits they realize - especially when the State is vindictive about making an example of anyone they catch doing this. 




Mon May 03 2021 11:57:14 EDT from darknetuser
There is a lot of black market for things that are actually legal. Specially under oppressive regimes.

The question is wether the tax&bourocrazy overcost offsets the risk of getting scammed by bad produc in a dark alley and having no legal recourse. If the tax overcost is low enough then the dark alley is finished. If the overcost from law compliance is mad you will have what my country has and more than 50% of your economy will be underground because nobody can afford legal activities.

 



[#] Mon May 03 2021 19:10:34 UTC from ParanoidDelusions

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"THEY wouldn't have been able to compete with the same thing for 20% of the price.

I wish Citadel allowed editing posts. 


 



[#] Mon May 03 2021 19:15:34 UTC from Nurb432

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yes, as bad as i type some days, that would be a nice feature, or perhaps just a delete and start over.   That would be less code.

Mon May 03 2021 03:10:34 PM EDT from ParanoidDelusions


I wish Citadel allowed editing posts. 

 

 



[#] Mon May 03 2021 19:26:53 UTC from ParanoidDelusions

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I was going to do that - but doesn't that just make the message to to trash? It is kind of like Facebook where you can edit messages, but there is a message edit history anyone can look at - so they'll still know in a moment of anger you called them a "dumb son-of-a-bitch who couldn't reason their way out of a wet paper bag with a box cutter," before you calmed down and deleted that line and replaced it with the more reasonable, "Although I'm certain you believe what you claim, I disagree with you respectfully on the following points..." 

Once you've committed it to save/post - there is no going back. :) 

 

Mon May 03 2021 15:15:34 EDT from Nurb432

yes, as bad as i type some days, that would be a nice feature, or perhaps just a delete and start over.   That would be less code.

Mon May 03 2021 03:10:34 PM EDT from ParanoidDelusions


I wish Citadel allowed editing posts. 

 

 



 



[#] Tue May 04 2021 14:25:59 UTC from darknetuser

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What *might* happen would be something like what happens with
cigarettes. DEALERS will buy black-market without tax stamps then
sell at or near regular retail - but the consumer very rarely
benefits, or even realizes that this is what is happening. It becomes

a relatively trivial part of the overall economy for the product - as

most dealers don't want to risk the fines, imprisonment, or loss of
license associated with getting caught cheating the state, for the
small benefit in profits they realize - especially when the State is

vindictive about making an example of anyone they catch doing this. 



Cigarettes smuggling exists in non-trivial quantities in places in which they are legal.

I have just remembered one of my best business partners used to be a tobacco smuggler. The profit margin is low but they compensate it by distributing lots of product. In the end they busted the smuggling ring but the most of them managed to escape with the money :D

[#] Tue May 04 2021 18:29:32 UTC from ParanoidDelusions

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Most black market cigarettes are Asian counterfeits that sell in Asian markets in poorer Chinatown type areas. 

They're worse than just untaxed cigarettes. They've got all kinds of contaminants in them. If you find a store with Chinese proprietors in the bad side of town that sells looseys for $.25 ea to black patrons... 

You've found the black market for tobacco - and you can probably get a massage and a handjob for $25 from a girl "paying off her ticket from China," at the massage parlor next door, and make a wager with the chef at the Chinese kitchen at the end of the strip mall. 

 

Tue May 04 2021 10:25:59 EDT from darknetuser

What *might* happen would be something like what happens with
cigarettes. DEALERS will buy black-market without tax stamps then
sell at or near regular retail - but the consumer very rarely
benefits, or even realizes that this is what is happening. It becomes

a relatively trivial part of the overall economy for the product - as

most dealers don't want to risk the fines, imprisonment, or loss of
license associated with getting caught cheating the state, for the
small benefit in profits they realize - especially when the State is

vindictive about making an example of anyone they catch doing this. 


Cigarettes smuggling exists in non-trivial quantities in places in which they are legal.

I have just remembered one of my best business partners used to be a tobacco smuggler. The profit margin is low but they compensate it by distributing lots of product. In the end they busted the smuggling ring but the most of them managed to escape with the money :D

 



[#] Wed May 05 2021 05:01:16 UTC from ASCII Express

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I find medical marijuana dispensaries fascinating places to observe. I know a lot of us have switched, but I also know that the dealers have done well during the pandemic. Shortly after it started they declared dispensaries as essential businesses. For a time the same did not apply to the state stores where people buy alcohol. They went kind of nuts. The state put up a web site , and customers crashed it within a day. I laughed.

[#] Wed May 05 2021 05:40:32 UTC from ParanoidDelusions

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So it was easier to get high than drunk where you are at? 

Arizona never really paused. I mean... we wore masks and we had a little period of lockdown - but even then... I was an essential worker... stores were open, fast food was open... 

 

 

Wed May 05 2021 01:01:16 EDT from ASCII Express
I find medical marijuana dispensaries fascinating places to observe. I know a lot of us have switched, but I also know that the dealers have done well during the pandemic. Shortly after it started they declared dispensaries as essential businesses. For a time the same did not apply to the state stores where people buy alcohol. They went kind of nuts. The state put up a web site , and customers crashed it within a day. I laughed.

 



[#] Wed May 05 2021 13:01:13 UTC from darknetuser

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2021-05-04 14:29 from ParanoidDelusions
Most black market cigarettes are Asian counterfeits that sell in

Asian markets in poorer Chinatown type areas. 

They're worse than just untaxed cigarettes. They've got all kinds of

contaminants in them. If you find a store with Chinese proprietors in

the bad side of town that sells looseys for $.25 ea to black
patrons... 

You've found the black market for tobacco - and you can probably get

a massage and a handjob for $25 from a girl "paying off her ticket

from China," at the massage parlor next door, and make a wager with

the chef at the Chinese kitchen at the end of the strip mall. 



These ones were just cigarettes produced in legit factories that they managed to sneak out bribing the owner or something of that sort.

They then proceeded to sell them to distribution channels as if they were regular taxed cigaretes and put the difference in their pockets.

They also moved them from low tax regions in a certain country to high tax regions of the same country to maximize profits.

As you can imagine, it was not bound to last, but much money to be made while it lasted :P

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