So the problem is that the US and Israel don't want to destroy Iran - they want to destroy the regime. They've destroyed a fair amount of weaponry and taken out most of the top leadership, and now there's a problem - the leadership has gone to ground, which means the chances of being able to take them out by airstrike is extremely slim.

And in IRGC terms, if you don't surrender, you've won. Hamas is still claiming they won, even though all of the leadership on the ground was killed, Gaza is reduced to rubble, Israel now controls about half of Gaza, and Hamas has no money. The only way for the west to actually win is to literally drag IRGC leaders in chains through the streets like a freaking parade. They're not going to off themselves or surrender. 

So America needs to use ground troops, but nobody wants to use ground troops. 

So Trump has to make it look like he really tried to negotiate. 

And markets open in under 24 hours, so the ceasefire will likely (65%) hold until Friday. And then, if it hasn't already restarted, the war will likely (85%) resume. The ground troops are all ready to go. There are three aircraft carriers in the middle east for the first time in decades. A bunch of countries just warned their people to leave Iran (why are they there at this point?).

And in Israel, we're all on our last nerve with this stupid ceasefire that will end and we know we're going to have the next round of ballistic missiles fired at us. 

And my dad has dementia, had a psychotic break, and is in a nursing home right now, and my family is supposed to have a family weekend May 1. Which we may spend in much closer quarters than originally planned...someone remind me to pack a go bag with snacks and games for the shelter. 

So ... this room is about World War One Hundred and Eleven, right?

I guess one could argue, WWI never really ended.. just the main operations, but not the actual war..

Wed Apr 29 2026 02:38:24 UTC from IGnatius T Foobar Subject: According to the dummy...

So ... this room is about World War One Hundred and Eleven, right?

 

I got it. 

I'll even give a generous interpretation - she was reading from a teleprompter - and WW II looks a lot like WW 11 - and she isn't really a senior member of the DNC. 

But do you think those on the Left don't really know about the faux pau she made in this case - or are they just ignoring dealing with it? 

I'm sorry if you're a pacifist living in Israel and you are dealing with a terrorist regime that wants to wipe your nation from the face of the Earth and has said so repeatedly - even if you think your government is maybe partially or even more responsible for this. 

It is a really shitty scenario - and I don't think your government has completely clean hands - but I know if I have to pick a side - I'm not on the side of Iran. I'm also not certain our current direction really resolves anything - after how Iraq and Libya and Afghanistan turned out. Far as *I* am concerned - you're all a bunch of shithole nations in the middle of God-forsaken deserts that have been brewing trouble for the rest of the world for at least the last 2000 years. If we could wall you all off like a UFC cage match and let you have a "last man standing" battle royale - I might be OK with that. 

But that may just be me. I could be wrong. I'd like to not be involved in your shit. 

Wed Apr 29 2026 02:38:24 UTC from IGnatius T Foobar Subject: According to the dummy...

So ... this room is about World War One Hundred and Eleven, right?

 

doh. i totally missed the joke. but been staying away from most news lately, so i guess its expected.

Long term it does not. You have to change the reasons behind people being that way, not just try to pound it out of them.   Sure, if you knock them back to the stone ages, they are no longer an immediate threat and the 'good guys' can go on with their lives in realtive safety, but all you have done is sow even more hostility under the surface, which will grow and fester as they rebuild. And when you are actually fighting a religion ( like we are doing here ) and not just a power-player ( like Germany was ), its even more true.

Now, how do you change 'people' to be nice? I cant say i have any answers here, but i can say that just blowing them up isn't the final solution. It will come back to bite us in the ass, someday.

Sun May 03 2026 05:53:40 UTC from ParanoidDelusions Subject: Re: According to the dummy...

i'm also not certain our current direction really resolves anything -  

And in IRGC terms, if you don't surrender, you've won. Hamas is still claiming they won, even though all of the leadership on the ground was killed, Gaza is reduced to rubble, Israel now controls about half of Gaza, and Hamas has no money. The only way for the west to actually win is to literally drag IRGC leaders in chains through the streets like a freaking parade. They're not going to off themselves or surrender. 

This is the part that most westerners don't understand.  In the islamofascist culture, negotiation is seen as a sign of weakness.  They come to the table knowing "stupid infidels are giving us time to retrench and we will destroy them later!  aloha snackbar!"

Considering that President Trump (PBUH) had a perfect record of starting no new wars, and ending half a dozen others, and he had to spoil that record to begin the current conflict ... I'd say there had to be credible evidence that Iran was close to completing a nuclear weapon.  It is clear that Iran will not keep such a weapon on hand as a deterrent; they will certainly use it the moment the last screw is tightened on the bomb housing.

Someone mentioned above that we're trying to take out "the regime" without taking out the country itself.  Surgical strikes on islamofascist regimes are a mistake.  They need to be bombed back into the stone age.

Really, that is the case for a lot of 'societies'. 

Sun May 03 2026 22:40:38 UTC from IGnatius T Foobar

This is the part that most westerners don't understand.  In the islamofascist culture, negotiation is seen as a sign of weakness.  They come to the table knowing "stupid infidels are giving us time to retrench and we will destroy them later!  aloha snackbar!"

 

About 80% of the iranian people are against the regime - the US goal is likely to be to soften up the regime military and then arm the Persian people. 

I think Trump thought it might be possible without major US ground troops, but that seems unlikely now.

And Iran started bombing Kuwait and the UAE again, so I'm guessing I should put some fresh water bottles in our shelter.

Even i could have told him he was wrong. 

And im sorry to hear things are starting to ramp up again.  Tho not unexpected, still hate to see you and your family go thru more of this.

Mon May 04 2026 16:57:20 UTC from triLcat

I think Trump thought it might be possible without major US ground troops, but that seems unlikely now.

 

new thought: since the us hasn't declared war, trump is waiting for a ceasefire break egregious enough that the US has to resume fighting without congress approving it.

From what im seeing on the actions/reactions/responses, the current plan of action is to operate just under 60 day cycles. With a short buffer between with 'no actions/ceasefire', so each 'restart' is out of scope of the last 'action' as it technically isn't an 'extension' but a 'new action'.. So as to skirt the 'war powers' act with its time-limit of operations without direct legislative approval.  Not that it hasn't been done in similar ways in the past, just it feels that is the plan today too.

( and sorry for dipping toes in the political water here, just my observation on what is taking place and comparing it to our past history )

Tue May 05 2026 07:17:55 EDT from triLcat

new thought: since the us hasn't declared war, trump is waiting for a ceasefire break egregious enough that the US has to resume fighting without congress approving it.

Too much for me to keep up on in this room. But Nurb, I was hostile and abrasive on purpose - even if I didn't consciously know it at the time - and you were measured and calm in your responses - and I do respect that. 

Seems plausible to me. Honestly, I'm just trying to predict when the next round of missiles will be aimed at us, so all my analytical political skills are focused on that. 

That and trying to figure out if we can have a bat mitzvah for my youngest June 30th and we're supposed to be going to slovenia in July, but flights on our airline are canceled through the end of June now. If they cancel another month, then we will not be going to slovenia, and that will be 2 juggling conventions that my husband misses this year because of this war. (one in Israel was canceled because there isn't proper shelter at the venue) And it'll also be our second canceled trip for the year. We were supposed to go to Cyprus in March for our 20th anniversary, but the flights got canceled - the airport was only running repatriation flights at that time (both ways - non Israeli residents trying to get out and Israelis trying to get in). 

Tue May 05 2026 10:54:36 EDT from Nurb432

From what im seeing on the actions/reactions/responses, the current plan of action is to operate just under 60 day cycles. With a short buffer between with 'no actions/ceasefire', so each 'restart' is out of scope of the last 'action' as it technically isn't an 'extension' but a 'new action'.. So as to skirt the 'war powers' act with its time-limit of operations without direct legislative approval.  Not that it hasn't been done in similar ways in the past, just it feels that is the plan today too.

( and sorry for dipping toes in the political water here, just my observation on what is taking place and comparing it to our past history )

Tue May 05 2026 07:17:55 EDT from triLcat

new thought: since the us hasn't declared war, trump is waiting for a ceasefire break egregious enough that the US has to resume fighting without congress approving it.

 

SOP for all governments, in most any action.

Sun May 10 2026 08:40:06 EDT from LoanShark

which is why the expected negotiation outcome is "stall, delay, distract"